FXUS64 KCRP 210001 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 601 PM CST Wed Jan 20 2021 .AVIATION... Will expect MVFR conditions through the night lowering to IFR at times due to low clouds and BR. -DZ/-RA will be patchy through the night as well, especially toward ALI-CRP which should also add to the lowering VSBYs/CIGs. Model soundings show lowering CIGs and MVFR VSBYs toward COT-LRD between 09-13Z, so have added at least TEMPO conditions out west early Thursday. Some gradual improvements are expected through the day Thursday, but should remain at MVFR through the end of the TAF period. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 306 PM CST Wed Jan 20 2021/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night)... A weak boundary remains stalled near the coast this afternoon with northeasterly winds for the Coastal Bend and Victoria, and northwesterly winds for the remainder of the region. This boundary is likely to remain stalled there or wobble a bit overnight Light rain will continue, especially west of the front as isentropic lift persists. The rain will eventually drift eastward later tonight with decreasing coverage. Have mainly slight chance PoPs, but pockets of change in central portions of the area. Generally light rainfall amounts are expected through the night. With already hazy/humid conditions, it wouldn't take much for for to decrease visibilities further tonight, especially to the east of the stalled boundary. Not expecting widespread dense fog though, and northeasterly wind should keep sea fog from developing. By Thursday, The boundary looks to drift back inland with southerly flow developing east of it tomorrow. Temperatures should be a bit warmer tomorrow but with plenty of cloud cover persisting, leaned more toward the cooler NAM with highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Fog will be possible again Thursday night. LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)... The combination of plentiful available moisture, and the passing of a mid-level disturbance and associated weak frontal boundary may lead to isolated showers Friday morning. However, the rain should quickly clear out of the area in the afternoon as a drier airmass and surface high pressure settles in behind the front. Onshore flow is expected to resume by Saturday as the surface high shifts eastward. This will allow for a steady increase in moisture across the region which may lead to additional showers over the weekend. Rain and thunderstorms chances will further increase on Sunday with the arrival of even deeper moisture, and with better instability available provided by the presence of some weak upper level jet dynamics and another passing shortwave aloft. Thunderstorm chances will linger into Monday as another cold front is progged to move across the area. Drier and slightly cooler conditions are then expected Monday night through early Wednesday as a surface high pressure gains control in the wake of the front while maintaining a persistent offshore flow over the region. Despite the frontal passages, above normal temperatures will continue through the period. Highs will generally be in the 70s to 80s range, with lows in the 50s to 60s. In addition to the rain, patchy fog and sea fog will remain possible through the weekend due to a combination of onshore winds and a warm moist layer over cooler waters. MARINE... Weak to moderate easterly flow will become more southeasterly tonight and tomorrow with a mainly south wind by later tomorrow. A few showers will remain possible A light southwesterly to westerly flow Friday, will become from the east to northeast Friday night into Saturday in response to a weak cold front moving across the region. A weak to moderate southerly flow returns Saturday night and strengthens to moderate to strong levels Sunday into Sunday night. Another front is expected to push across the area on Monday leading to a weak to moderate offshore flow behind it. Sea fog will be a concern through the week. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible through the week and into the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 60 71 62 79 60 / 30 20 20 10 10 Victoria 62 71 62 78 58 / 30 20 20 10 0 Laredo 53 71 59 81 61 / 10 10 10 0 10 Alice 58 72 61 81 60 / 30 20 20 0 10 Rockport 62 70 62 75 58 / 30 20 20 10 10 Cotulla 54 69 57 81 58 / 20 10 10 0 0 Kingsville 59 71 61 81 60 / 30 20 20 10 10 Navy Corpus 62 69 63 73 62 / 30 20 20 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ CB/85...AVIATION