FXUS64 KCRP 221746 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1246 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2020 .DISCUSSION... See aviation discussion below for the 18Z TAFs. && .AVIATION... Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads are expected to continue through the afternoon, then diminish by late afternoon/evening. VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon except in and around storms. Later tonight MVFR conditions are expected to develop due to both lowering clouds and patchy fog. At times, conditions will drop to IFR/LIFR toward early Fri morning before becoming VFR once again by mid morning Fri. A generally weak southeast flow is expected through the TAF period except with storms that could produce gusts up to 25-30kts at times. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 653 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2020/ DISCUSSION... Updated for the 12Z Aviation Discussion. Also, have issued another Coastal Flood Advisory for the islands from Port Aransas south. Persistent easterly fetch and increased swell periods will keep tides running about 1 foot above predicted. This will allow tides to reach 2 ft MSL during high tide this evening through Friday morning. AVIATION... MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS will continue across South Texas through mid morning with the exception of continued VFR at CRP. Isolated showers and/or thunderstorms are expected today for the coastal sites (ALI-VCT-CRP), but will hold off mention of thunder due to coverage being so limited. Any activity should diminish in the afternoon. With a mid-level disturbance shifting to the east this evening, drier mid-levels are expected which should lead to favorable conditions for BR/FG tonight, especially from ALI-VCT. With this, have lowered CIGS/VSBYs after midnight for the coastal areas. Confidence in lowering CIGS/VSBYs at COT-LRD is low at this time as profile soundings are not as saturated in the low levels, but this may change with later TAF issuances. PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 443 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2020/ SHORT TERM (Today through Friday)... Isolated showers continue this morning across the gulf waters with a few moving inland. With the mid-level trough still in place and moisture just over seasonal normal, will continue isolated showers for today mainly for the gulf and coastal plains. Most locations, however, will still remain dry. Atmospheric conditions should be very similar to yesterday, so will keep warm conditions for South Texas under partly cloudy skies. The mid-level trough is then expected to move eastward this evening and Friday, leading to mid-level ridging to occur from the southwest. Highs for Friday should be slightly warmer than today due to the increased subsidence. For tonight, with the drier air in the mid-levels, forecast sounding profiles show favorable conditions for another night of fog across the Coastal Plains. Lows will range in the low to mid 70s. As for the coastal flood advisories, the combination of long period swells, elevated swell heights, and persistent easterly flow, tides continue to run about 1 foot above predicted with tides reaching around 2 ft MSL during times of high tide. Minor coastal flooding continues early this morning and will expect another round of minor coastal flooding for this evening through Friday morning. In addition, Moderate Risk of Rip Currents is expected again today and tonight, lingering through Friday. LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)... The surface high pressure ridge pushing south through the plains Friday will be a little stronger than previously forecast. The cold front will be entering the northern counties of the forecast area early Friday evening and be into the coastal waters by late evening. Moisture will be limited so there will be no significant rain chances with the front. But enough low level moisture will lead to increase in clouds that will linger through Saturday morning. Adjusted temperatures down Friday night and Saturday close to CONSAll values that were similar to MAV guidance, which was above the colder NAM guidance. The surface ridge axis will weaken and move east of the area by Saturday evening. An area of low pressure will form over west Texas on Sunday that will bring the boundary north as warm front with highs Sunday expected to be 15-20 degrees warmer. The upper trough digging south through the western US Sunday will form into an upper low over the Great Basin Monday while a trough in the northern stream swings across the northern plains. This will send the next cold front south through the southern plains Monday. The position of the upper trough will have an effect on whether the cold front will continue to surge south into south Texas by Tuesday. Medium range models and ensembles are not in agreement with the position of the upper low/trough so there are differing solutions with the front. With the strength of cold air mass, leaning toward the front moving through the area on Tuesday. If low kicks out into New Mexico Tuesday, upper level height falls could lead to low pressure forming over northeast Mexico which would inhibit southward progress of the front. For now, went close to CONSAll which was slightly warmer than previous forecast for Tuesday. Will continue to show rain chances of 20-30 percent mainly over the coastal plains Tuesday into Wednesday. Air mass may dry out from west to east on Wednesday as region is dry slotted as the upper low moves into west Texas, but confidence is low at this point. Tide levels should remain elevated through the weekend but the astronomical tides will be slowly decreasing, so tide levels at time of high tide should be only reach marginal advisory criteria over the weekend. MARINE... A cold front will move into the coastal waters Friday night. North winds will increase to moderate levels/SCEC late Friday night into Saturday morning with winds possibly reaching SCA for an hour or two over the Gulf waters. North winds will weaken during the afternoon and become weak onshore Saturday evening. The onshore flow will become weak to moderate Sunday and Monday with a period of moderate onshore flow Sunday night as low pressure deepens over west Texas. A cold front will be approaching the waters late Monday night. The front is expected to slowly move the Gulf waters Tuesday. Wind will increase to SCEC levels with the offshore winds increasing to near SCA levels Tuesday night into Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 89 72 89 64 76 / 20 10 10 10 0 Victoria 88 71 89 58 74 / 20 10 10 10 0 Laredo 93 72 94 64 77 / 10 0 0 10 0 Alice 91 71 91 63 76 / 20 10 0 10 0 Rockport 86 74 87 64 75 / 20 10 10 10 0 Cotulla 93 71 93 60 75 / 10 0 0 10 0 Kingsville 90 72 91 65 76 / 20 0 10 10 0 Navy Corpus 87 76 87 66 74 / 30 10 10 10 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 5 AM CDT Friday For the following zones: Kleberg Islands...Nueces Islands. GM...None. && $$ TE/81...AVIATION