FXUS64 KCRP 251140 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 640 AM CDT Sat Sep 25 2021 .AVIATION... Expect continued VFR conditions through the period. Light southeasterly winds and mainly clear skies will persist as high pressure remains in control. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 413 AM CDT Sat Sep 25 2021/ SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday)... Surface ridge will continue to shift east today into Sunday with winds beginning their shift back around to a steady onshore flow. We'll continue to see a gradual increase in surface dewpoints from low to mid 60s along the coast today, to upper 60s by Sunday. Deep moisture influx has been delayed a bit and should not occur during the short term period, thus will keep any mentionable PoPs out of the forecast. Will continue the gradual increase in max temperatures with today being a degree or two higher than yesterday, and Sunday a degree or two warmer than today. These levels are near normal for this time of year. Min temps continue to increase as a result of the increasing moisture. LONG TERM (Sunday Night through Friday)... A mid to upper level low over the AZ/NM border will shift northeastward into the Central Great Plains through the middle of next week, while moisture builds in from the Gulf as a weak surface trough progresses across the western Gulf of Mexico into South Texas. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible across coastal areas and the Victoria Crossroads Monday and Monday night as moisture increases and a weak surface trough progresses across the area. The previously mentioned low will push across mid-level shortwaves over much of Texas Tuesday through at least Wednesday; these disturbances will cause positive vorticity to drape over the area, along with PWATs around 2.0", greater than the 75th percentile. Therefore, scattered coverage has expanded westward into portions of the Brush Country beginning Tuesday, and continuing through Wednesday. It's important to note that the most favorable dynamics seem to stay just north of the CWA. In addition, a zonal 250mb jet streak may position itself across South Texas through this time frame, but model guidances vary on the latitudinal position, which could change locations under upper-level diffluence. The ECMWF/CMC keep the jet over South Texas, whereas the GFS does have the jet streak over South Texas on Tuesday but then strong ridging from the south pushes the jet streak north over Central Texas by Wednesday, weakening in the process. Moisture seems limited to the low levels, below 800mb through Tuesday, before deepening through 500mb Tuesday night through the rest of the work week. Therefore, best rain chances are expected Tuesday night and Wednesday. GFS soundings show CAPE ranging from 1500 to 3000 J/kg, with greatest over the Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads. A high pressure system over Central America or the southwest Gulf of Mexico will induce ridging aloft as early as Wednesday night and continue to build over South Texas through the rest of the work week. The ECMWF continues to be the wettest, indicating large swaths QPFs of 0.25" across all of Texas Thursday and Friday. Don't have that confidence in widespread coverage due to ridging building and upper-level dynamics becoming less favorable. Therefore, have reduced PoPs from NBM, compromising with a 30-40% across the CWA as another mid-level low forms over the southwest CONUS and Baja California. High temperatures remain relatively steady, ranging from the upper 80s near the coast to the mid 90s over the Brush Country. These temperatures will vary if rain and/or cloud coverage is less or more than currently expected. Maximum afternoon heat indices are expected to remain below 105 through the period. Low temperatures will warm up as moisture and dewpoints increase; Sunday night will range from the mid 70s near the coast to upper 60s inland, increasing slightly to the low to mid 70s for the remaining nights. MARINE... Dry conditions will continue today. A light to moderate east to northeast flow today will shift more southeast tonight and Sunday as high pressure shifts eastward. A weak surface trough will move through the coastal waters Sunday night and inland on Monday. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible with the passage of the trough Sunday night through Monday night. Onshore flow will be weak to moderate during the day and moderate at night Sunday night through Friday. There will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms from Tuesday through Wednesday night as a series of upper level disturbances interact with deep moisture over the region. Confidence decreases heading into the end of the work week as ridging builds over the coastal waters, but kept a 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms Thursday through Friday due to higher than normal moisture and a nearby low pressure system over the southwest CONUS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 90 64 91 72 92 / 0 0 0 10 20 Victoria 89 60 91 69 90 / 0 0 0 10 30 Laredo 93 66 93 72 96 / 0 0 0 0 0 Alice 90 62 92 69 94 / 0 0 0 0 20 Rockport 87 70 89 76 89 / 0 0 0 20 30 Cotulla 94 61 95 69 97 / 0 0 0 0 10 Kingsville 90 63 91 70 94 / 0 0 0 0 20 Navy Corpus 88 72 89 77 89 / 0 0 0 20 20 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ PH/83...AVIATION