FXUS64 KMAF 182012
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
312 PM CDT Sun Apr 18 2021

.DISCUSSION...

The weak mid-lvl shrtwv which brought light rain to S portions
of the area this morning is currently departing to the E. Cloud
cover has diminished somewhat this afternoon, lending to slightly
warmer temps than we have seen in previous days. An upper-level
low, which is now cutoff over AZ, is forecasted to sink into N MX
tonight before developing into an open wave and translating over
the Big Bend Region tomorrow. Lift assocd w/this 500 hpa shrtwv will
bring another chance of showers and isold t-storms to areas along
and S of the Pecos River late tonight through early tomorrow. The
sfc high will finally shift E of the region tomorrow bringing warm
southerly return flow and highs in the U60s/L70s. This warm up will
be short lived however as a strong cold front enters the region
early Tuesday. This front should reach the Pecos River valley around
15Z Tuesday morning with gusty NE winds in its wake. We could see
brief high winds at GDP and near advisory lvl winds in the plains.
Blowing dust is also anticipated due to the unfortunate lack of
rainfall across the Permian Basin. Temperatures on Tuesday
afternoon should range from 50s in the N Permian Basin to the
70s and 80s S of the HWY 90 corridor. A light freeze will also
be possible for our N row of counties by Wednesday morning.

Dry quasi-zonal flow aloft will prevail over the forecast area from
Tuesday thru Thursday before the next 500 hpa trof deepens over the
W CONUS on Friday. Temperatures will warm slightly Wednesday and
Thursday, but SE sfc flow and cloudiness will keep the E CWA cooler
than areas further W. Friday looks to be the warmest day of the
forecast period ahead of the approaching upper-level trof. There may
be a few t-storms over the far E CWA friday afternoon before another
cold front enters the region early Saturday. The GFS is currently
the only model which depicts precipitation with the passage of this
front, and will lean towards the dryer solutions for now.

-Salerno

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     41  71  44  58 /   0  10   0   0
Carlsbad                       39  72  41  62 /  20  20   0   0
Dryden                         51  70  49  78 /  20  30   0   0
Fort Stockton                  46  70  49  66 /  20  30   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 41  64  43  57 /  20  30   0   0
Hobbs                          39  69  36  57 /  10  10   0   0
Marfa                          39  66  38  69 /  40  40   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           41  70  44  60 /  10  10   0   0
Odessa                         42  69  44  60 /  10  10   0   0
Wink                           41  72  43  65 /  10  20   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

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