FXUS64 KMAF 251114
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
614 AM CDT Sat Sep 25 2021

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 AM CDT Sat Sep 25 2021

VFR conditions with easterly to southeasterly winds will continue
the next 24 hours. Sustained wind speeds will generally remain
around 12kt or less, though winds may be intermittently gusty
this afternoon, mainly affecting FST, INK, and MAF.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Sat Sep 25 2021

Latest water vapor imagery indicates a cutoff low circulating near
the Baja/California border early this morning, advecting a fetch of
moisture eastward that will yield increasing high clouds through the
day today. Despite the increasing cloud cover, temperatures are
still expected to top out near normal for late September in the
middle to upper 80s for most, and lower 90s confined to portions of
the river valleys. Overnight tonight, another seasonably cool night
is expected, with lows dipping into the middle 50s to lower 60s. The
aforementioned low will begin to move northeastward into Arizona by
early Sunday, with increasing ascent resulting in showers and storms
mainly across far West Texas and portions of Arizona and New Mexico
Sunday afternoon. Locally, the forecast looks to remain mainly dry
through the weekend, though a few showers/storms may impact far
western areas from the Guadalupe Mountains south to Van Horn and the
Marfa Plateau Sunday. Temperatures Sunday will also trend up a
degree or two most locations as ridging amplifies ahead of the
aforementioned low, with highs reaching into the middle 80s to
around 90 degrees for most Sunday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Sat Sep 25 2021

Sunday night the cut off low will be located over AZ with a trough
moving across the NE states and a ridge over the Gulf.  This low
will move into NM Monday and then open up into a trough as it lifts
across CO late Tuesday.  As it does the next trough will move onto
the West Coast.  This next trough will deepen across CA Wednesday
forming into another cut off low along the Mex border early Thursday.
On Friday this low will lift northward across AZ as a secondary
trough hits the West coast. This low will track across CO/WY
Saturday as this trough also forms a cut off low along the CA Coast.

Lows Monday morning will be back into the 60s as higher dewpts hold
temps up.  Highs will be near normal Monday in the mid to upper
80s... a bit warmer Tuesday with Wednesday being the warmest day of
the week as 90s return.  A weak front makes it into the region
Thursday night then lifts northward Friday... but with increased
cloud cover the day should be cooler in the 70s to lower 80s.

Rain chances for the area will be on the increase with lows west of
the region. Rain chances start out west Sunday night then spread
eastward through the week.  Currently Thursday and Friday looking
like the best chance for rain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               87  59  88  64 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 86  57  88  63 /   0   0  10  20
Dryden                   87  62  90  65 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            86  59  89  65 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass           78  59  81  59 /  10  10  10  40
Hobbs                    85  57  86  62 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                    81  52  84  57 /   0   0  10  20
Midland Intl Airport     86  59  88  65 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                   86  60  87  65 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                     88  60  91  64 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84
LONG TERM....72
AVIATION...84