FXUS64 KSJT 210452 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1052 PM CST Wed Jan 20 2021 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 222 PM CST Wed Jan 20 2021 Scattered light showers were affecting areas generally north of Interstate 20 as of 2 PM this afternoon. Expect the last of these showers to move out of the area by this evening. However, additional shortwave energy is expected to be drawn northeastward over the area tonight ahead of the upper level low off the coast of the Baja Peninsula. Lift from this shortwave is expected to result in another round of scattered light showers from late tonight into Thursday, with the best chances for precipitation residing south of Interstate 20. In addition to the light rain, with southerly flow and moisture increasing near the surface, temperatures should be either steady or slowly rise tonight. Temperatures are expected to be in the low to mid 40s by early morning Thursday, then warming into the low to mid 60s by the afternoon hours. Precipitation coverage should slowly diminish throughout the day. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 222 PM CST Wed Jan 20 2021 The above mentioned shortwave trough will swing out across the region Thursday night. A few of the high res models are showing scattered showers moving across the northern two thirds of the forecast area in the overnight night hours on Thursday so will continue with a slight chance to chance of PoPs. Behind the departing shortwave models prog a weak front sliding down into the Big Country and northern Concho Valley during the morning. Temperatures will be cooler behind the front (mid 50s in the Big Country) vs mid 60s and lower 70s across the southern half of the area. Southerly flow strengthens on Saturday in response to pressure falls in the lee of the Rockies. Temperatures will warm back up into the 60s area wide on Saturday and then into the 70s on Sunday. Rain chances increase again on Sunday and continue into Sunday night as an upper level low pressure ejects out of the Four Corners region and lifts out into the Plains. The associated Pacific front sweeps across the region Monday morning with some rain chances lingering across our eastern counties. Drier and cooler air will filter in behind the front, with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Another trough may approach the region on Wednesday but will keep PoPs out of the forecast for now. Temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday will remain near seasonal normals. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1037 PM CST Wed Jan 20 2021 IFR conditions are currently limited to the KBBD terminal late this, with mainly VFR conditions elsewhere. Expecting conditions to deteriorate across the southern terminals towards daybreak, with MVFR/IFR conditions developing. Will carry -RA across the southern terminals for a good portion of the day tomorrow, with precip ending by late afternoon. VFR conditions expected at KSJT and KABI tomorrow evening, with MVFR ceilings expected across the southern terminals. Winds will remain light through the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 45 65 45 57 / 10 30 20 5 San Angelo 45 63 47 65 / 30 50 30 0 Junction 44 67 47 72 / 20 40 20 0 Brownwood 43 63 45 61 / 20 40 20 5 Sweetwater 46 63 45 55 / 10 30 20 5 Ozona 45 60 47 68 / 30 50 30 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM....42 AVIATION...24