FXUS64 KSJT 210452
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1052 PM CST Wed Jan 20 2021

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 222 PM CST Wed Jan 20 2021

Scattered light showers were affecting areas generally north of
Interstate 20 as of 2 PM this afternoon. Expect the last of these
showers to move out of the area by this evening. However,
additional shortwave energy is expected to be drawn northeastward
over the area tonight ahead of the upper level low off the coast
of the Baja Peninsula. Lift from this shortwave is expected to
result in another round of scattered light showers from late
tonight into Thursday, with the best chances for precipitation
residing south of Interstate 20.

In addition to the light rain, with southerly flow and moisture
increasing near the surface, temperatures should be either steady
or slowly rise tonight. Temperatures are expected to be in the
low to mid 40s by early morning Thursday, then warming into the
low to mid 60s by the afternoon hours. Precipitation coverage
should slowly diminish throughout the day.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 222 PM CST Wed Jan 20 2021

The above mentioned shortwave trough will swing out across the
region Thursday night. A few of the high res models are showing
scattered showers moving across the northern two thirds of the
forecast area in the overnight night hours on Thursday so will
continue with a slight chance to chance of PoPs. Behind the
departing shortwave models prog a weak front sliding down into the
Big Country and northern Concho Valley during the morning.
Temperatures will be cooler behind the front (mid 50s in the Big
Country) vs mid 60s and lower 70s across the southern half of the
area. Southerly flow strengthens on Saturday in response to
pressure falls in the lee of the Rockies. Temperatures will warm
back up into the 60s area wide on Saturday and then into the 70s
on Sunday. Rain chances increase again on Sunday and continue into
Sunday night as an upper level low pressure ejects out of the
Four Corners region and lifts out into the Plains. The associated
Pacific front sweeps across the region Monday morning with some
rain chances lingering across our eastern counties. Drier and
cooler air will filter in behind the front, with highs in the
upper 50s to mid 60s. Another trough may approach the region on
Wednesday but will keep PoPs out of the forecast for now.
Temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday will remain near seasonal
normals.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1037 PM CST Wed Jan 20 2021

IFR conditions are currently limited to the KBBD terminal late
this, with mainly VFR conditions elsewhere. Expecting conditions
to deteriorate across the southern terminals towards daybreak,
with MVFR/IFR conditions developing. Will carry -RA across the
southern terminals for a good portion of the day tomorrow, with
precip ending by late afternoon. VFR conditions expected at KSJT
and KABI tomorrow evening, with MVFR ceilings expected across the
southern terminals. Winds will remain light through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  45  65  45  57 /  10  30  20   5
San Angelo  45  63  47  65 /  30  50  30   0
Junction  44  67  47  72 /  20  40  20   0
Brownwood  43  63  45  61 /  20  40  20   5
Sweetwater  46  63  45  55 /  10  30  20   5
Ozona       45  60  47  68 /  30  50  30   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...24