Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

From the National Hurricane Center:

For the North Atlantic Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Fifteen, located more than 100 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. A well-organized cluster of showers and T-Storms associated with a tropical wave continues to move quickly westward across the central Caribbean Sea. Although the disturbance does not yet have a well-defined circulation center, ship observations indicate that tropical-storm-force winds are occurring in the northern portion of wave to the southeast of Jamaica, which will spread near or just south of Jamaica later this morning and into thru 5 pm this afternoon…. Environmental conditions are expected to become a little more conducive for development, and a tropical depression or a tropical storm is likely to form during the next day or so before the system reaches Central America Wednesday night. Locally heavy rains and gusty winds are possible on Jamaica Today, and interests there, as well as in northern Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, Guatemala, and the Yucatan Peninsula, should monitor the progress of this system. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is currently en route to investigate the disturbance. Potential tropical cyclone or tropical cyclone advisories will likely be issued later Today, along with watches and warnings. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Texas Weather Tracker TV. * Formation chance through 48 hours high 80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days high 80 percent. A tropical wave is expected to emerge off the coast of Africa in a day or so. Gradual development of this system will be possible through the end of the week while it moves slowly westward over the far eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours low near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days medium 40 percent. High Seas Forecasts issued by Texas Weather Tracker TV can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php. Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Fifteen are issued under WMO header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Fifteen are issued under WMO header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5. Forecaster Stewart