Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

From the National Hurricane Center:

For the North Atlantic Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:Near the Yucatan Peninsula and Southeastern Gulf of Mexico:A large area of disorganized showers and T-Storms locatedover the northwestern Caribbean Sea and Yucatan Peninsula isassociated with a broad area of low pressure. Environmentalconditions appear conducive for gradual development, and thissystem is likely to become a tropical depression while it movesnortheastward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and southeasternGulf of Mexico during the next couple of days. Regardless ofdevelopment, locally heavy rainfall is likely across portions ofsoutheastern Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, and Belize during thenext day or so, spreading across western Cuba, South Florida, andthe Florida Keys on Friday and Saturday. Interests in the YucatanPeninsula, western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the Florida Peninsulashould monitor the progress of this system.* Formation chance through 48 hours high 70 percent.* Formation chance through 5 days high 80 percent.Southwestern Atlantic northeast of the Bahamas:A weak surface trough located around 200 miles northeast of thecentral Bahamas is producing disorganized shower activity as itinteracts with an upper-level trough. Surface pressures arecurrently high across the area, and significant development of thissystem appears unlikely as it moves generally east-northeastwardover the next several days away from the southeastern United States.* Formation chance through 48 hours low 10 percent.* Formation chance through 5 days low 10 percent.Today marks the first day of the Atlantic hurricane season, whichwill run until November 30. Long-term averages for the number ofnamed storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes are 14, 7, and 3,respectively.The list of names for 2022 is as follows:Name Pronunciation Name Pronunciation————————————————————-Alex AL-leks Lisa LEE-suhBonnie BAH-nee Martin MAR-tinColin KAH-lihn Nicole nih-KOHLDanielle dan-YELL Owen OH-uhnEarl URR-ull Paula PAHL-luhFiona fee-OH-nuh Richard RIH-churdGaston ga-STAWN Shary SHAHR-eeHermine her-MEEN Tobias toh-BEE-ussIan EE-an Virginie vir-JIN-eeJulia JOO-lee-uh Walter WALL-turKarl KAR-ullThis product, the Tropical Weather Outlook, briefly describessignificant areas of disturbed weather and their potential fortropical cyclone formation during the next five days. The issuancetimes of this product are 2 AM, 8 AM, 2 PM, and 8 PM EDT. After thechange to standard time in November, the issuance times are 1 AM, 7AM, 1 PM, and 7 PM EST.A Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued to provideupdates, as necessary, in between the regularly scheduled issuancesof the Tropical Weather Outlook. Special Tropical Weather Outlookswill be issued under the same WMO and AWIPS headers as the regularTropical Weather Outlooks.A standard package of products, consisting of the tropical cyclonepublic advisory, the forecast/advisory, the cyclone discussion, anda wind speed probability product, is issued every six hours for allongoing tropical cyclones. In addition, a special advisory packagemay be issued at any time to advise of significant unexpectedchanges or to modify watches or warnings.The Tropical Cyclone Update is a brief statement to inform ofsignificant changes in a tropical cyclone or to post or cancelwatches or warnings. It is used in lieu of or to precede theissuance of a special advisory package. Tropical Cyclone Updates,which can be issued at any time, can be found under WMO headerWTNT61-65 KNHC, and under AWIPS header MIATCUAT1-5.All National Hurricane Center text and graphical products areavailable on the web at www.hurricanes.gov. More informationon NHC text products can be found athttps://www.hurricanes.gov/aboutnhcprod.shtml, while moreinformation about NHC graphical products can be found athttps://www.hurricanes.gov/aboutnhcgraphics.shtml.You can also interact with NHC on Facebook athttps://www.facebook.com/NWSNHC. Notifications are available viaTwitter when select National Hurricane Center products are issued.Information about our Atlantic Twitter feed (@NHC_Atlantic) isavailable at www.hurricanes.gov/twitter.php.Forecaster Brown/Bucci