Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

From the National Hurricane Center:

For the North Atlantic Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to update the discussion and development potential for the area of disturbed weather near the Bahamas. The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Paulette, located over the central tropical Atlantic, and on Tropical Storm Rene, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic. Updated: Shower and thunderstorm activity located over the northwestern and central Bahamas and the adjacent waters continues to shows signs of organization. In addition, surface observations indicate that pressures have fallen over the area since yesterday and, along with wind data, suggest that a broad area of low pressure could be forming between the northwestern Bahamas and South Florida. This system is forecast to move westward at about 10 mph, crossing the Bahamas and Florida Today and Tonight and moving into the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. The disturbance could become a tropical depression while it is near South Florida Tonight, but it is more likely to become a tropical depression while it moves slowly west-northwestward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico this weekend and early next week. Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall over portions of the Bahamas, South Florida, and the Florida Keys during the next couple of days, and interests there, as well as along the northern and eastern Gulf coast, should monitor its progress. * Formation chance through 48 hours medium 60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days high 70 percent. Another trough of low pressure is located over the north-central Gulf of Mexico. Although the associated shower and thunderstorm activity is currently minimal, some slow development of this system is possible while it moves westward and then southwestward over the northern and western Gulf of Mexico through early next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours low 10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days low 30 percent. A tropical wave is located a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands and is producing a large area of disorganized showers and T-Storms. Development of this system is forecast, and a tropical depression is expected to form within the next few days while the system moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours high 70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days high 90 percent. Another large area of disturbed weather associated with a tropical wave is beginning to move off the west coast of Africa. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development during the next few days, and a tropical depression could form over the far eastern tropical Atlantic early next week while the system moves slowly westward. Upper-level winds could become less conducive for development by Monday or Tuesday. * Formation chance through 48 hours low 10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days medium 40 percent. Forecaster Berg