Today’s Severe Weather Zone

William’s Severe Weather Zone for Tuesday:

Atlantic coast tonight. To the southeast of this wave, a leading MCV west of Tampa Bay should progress northeast towards northeast FL by early afternoon. Most guidance suggests that a compact LLJ accompanying the lead impulse should shift across parts of the peninsula through about 18Z. This has aided in a recent northward advancement of the surface front across south FL where mid 70s surface temperatures and low 70s dew points have become prevalent. Near the surface warm front, enlarged low-level hodographs will favor a conditional threat for multiple supercells. Actual convective evolution is more uncertain as guidance differs markedly with the handling of ongoing convection off the Gulf coast and mainly stratiform activity over the peninsula. Convection just west of Tampa Bay and Sarasota may have the best potential to intensify near the surface warm front this morning. Otherwise, continued indications of probable mid-level drying/subsidence in the wake of the leading MCV and veering of the low-level wind profile with time diminishes confidence in the degree of sustained thunderstorm development this afternoon. ..Grams/Mosier.. 12/21/2021 $$